Bulls, Bears, & Bowties Episode 2: The Strong Dollar and What It Means for Emerging Markets
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In this episode of Bulls, Bears, & Bowties, hosts Greg Silberman and David Crook will discuss international currency markets, the strong dollar, and the implications for emerging markets such as Turkey and South Africa.
Watch this episode to learn:
[1:45] Why is the dollar stronger? The status as reserve currency, strong economic performance, rising interest rates, and low European interest rates.
[5:08] According to Keynesian theory, a strong currency hurts net exporters. Here’s our take.
[6:13] Turkey has issued a large amount of dollar-denominated bonds. Is the Turkish lira on the brink of a collapse? We evaluate the likelihood of a default on Turkish foreign currency denominated debt.
[10:12] A comparison with the South African debt moratorium in the 1980s and a look at how their modern day debt to GDP ratios stack up.
[12:39] What strikes us as interesting about where we are geopolitically. Do the world’s leaders have their people’s interests at heart?
[14:34] What we would do if we were running an emerging markets economy to neutralize the effect of trade tariffs.
[15:52] The markets are bigger than any one person over time. Which markets should we be keeping our eyes on in the months ahead?
[17:14] Where in the world we recommend that you go for the vacation of your life.
Please stay tuned for our next market update in 2 weeks. In the meantime, you can reach out to us with any questions, comments, or feedback.
Greg Silberman, CIO, firstname.lastname@example.org
David Crook, Global Economist, email@example.com
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